IATA Warns: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Falls Short of 2050 Goals

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a stark warning that the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains significantly below the levels necessary to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The organization emphasized that the slow expansion of SAF production threatens emission reduction plans and increases financial burdens on airlines.

According to IATA’s estimates, global production of SAF is projected to reach only about 2.4 million tons by 2026, accounting for just 0.8% of total aviation fuel consumption. This shortfall is expected to impose an additional cost of approximately $4.3 billion on airlines.

Limited Production Threatens Carbon Neutrality Plans

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, stated that the aviation sector faces another year of disappointment regarding sustainable fuel production. He noted that five years after the industry’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, sustainable fuel still constitutes a negligible portion of its needs.

Walsh added that meeting the target of covering 65% of aviation fuel requirements with SAF by 2050 is becoming increasingly difficult each year due to inconsistent government policies, weak investment incentives, and insufficient interest from oil companies in developing this vital market.

He stressed that the current global energy crisis was expected to accelerate investment in renewable energy sources; however, the sector has yet to see measures capable of establishing a robust market that can meet the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel.

Four Priorities for Accelerating Sustainable Fuel Production

IATA called for practical steps to expand sustainable fuel production based on four main pillars:.

• Expanding renewable energy production to provide the necessary raw materials and clean energy for manufacturing.
• Ensuring open and fair access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage facilities, and airport supply systems.
• Providing stable political and regulatory incentives that encourage investment and reduce risks before imposing any mandatory commitments.
• Establishing a global market for sustainable aviation fuel based on a “Book-and-Claim” system, allowing trade in fuel between producers and airlines regardless of their geographical locations.

The association emphasized that this mechanism would help transform the sustainable fuel market from a limited local market into a more efficient and equitable global market.

Electric Aviation Fuel: Ambitions Exceed Reality

Regarding electric sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF), IATA explained that this type represents one of the crucial future solutions for reducing emissions but relies on vast quantities of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and carbon dioxide.

While both the European Union and the United Kingdom aim to produce about 0.6 million tons of e-SAF by 2030, current global production capacity—both operational and under construction—does not exceed 0.02 million tons, with only one commercial facility currently operational. Achieving target quantities would require establishing around 20 new commercial refineries.

IATA: Imposing Obligations Before Production Raises Prices

Mary Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, stated that the targets set by the UK and EU for e-SAF production do not reflect current production capabilities.

She added that imposing mandatory requirements before building necessary manufacturing capacities could lead to increased prices and divert resources away from achieving real emission reductions. The solution begins with expanding renewable energy production and reducing its costs before establishing a sustainable fuel industry on solid economic foundations.

Travelers Support Transition Towards More Sustainable Aviation

A recent survey conducted by IATA in April 2026 revealed widespread support among travelers for decarbonization efforts in air transport. The survey indicated that 89% of participants believe airlines should continue reducing emissions even if governments roll back environmental policies.

The survey also highlighted that 66% of travelers are willing to incur additional costs to help offset carbon emissions while expecting 88% anticipate an increase in ticket prices due to investments aimed at sustainability.

Sustainability Influences Travel Choices

The survey results showed travelers prefer tangible solutions for emission reductions; with 25% favoring investments in sustainable aviation fuel and 23% supporting low-emission technologies compared to only 10% who endorsed new taxes.

Sustainability considerations have become part of travel decisions as nearly half of participants reported they consider carbon emissions when choosing flights, while three-quarters prefer traveling with airlines demonstrating better environmental performance.

A Clear Message for the Aviation Industry

These indicators confirm that travelers support the aviation sector’s journey toward climate neutrality while preferring practical solutions that reduce emissions without compromising travel opportunities or imposing unjustified financial burdens. This scenario presents governments and stakeholders with the challenge of accelerating sustainable aviation fuel production to ensure a more sustainable future for air transport.